Where Did All the Democrats Go?

Author

Reese Adkins

Date of Award

8-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Department

Political Science

First Advisor

Patrick Donnay

Abstract

Following the reelection of President Obama in 2012, many political scientists such as Ruy Teixeira and John B. Judis, believed that this signaled the beginning of many Democratic electoral victories to come. They published their argument in their book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, in which they explained the Democratic Party’s plan to gain a systemic advantage in presidential elections. This was to be achieved by winning elections through winning the vote of minority groups, white women, and young college-educated people. This has been far from the case. Donald Trump, with political experience, shocked the world after winning the 2016 election for the Republican Party. He then follows up that performance with a narrow loss to Biden before getting reelected in 2024. In order to discover what went wrong for the Democrats and to find out how the Republican Party was able to edge out some of these victories, I analyzed polling data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), specifically from 2008 and 2020. I cross-referenced that with research furthered by Ruy Teixeira in his follow-up book, Where Have All the Democrats Gone?

Share

COinS